Hart Market Intelligence - Wednesday, May 13

Date: Wednesday, May 13, 2026

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MARKET OVERVIEW

Markets are navigating a split session ahead of the April PPI print, with tech names catching a bid on Trump-Xi summit optimism while blue-chips drift lower. The Nasdaq leads on semiconductor strength as Nvidia's Huang joins the presidential delegation to Beijing—injecting fresh AI trade momentum into an otherwise cautious tape. All eyes are on the 8:30 AM ET producer inflation data, which will either validate yesterday's hot CPI or offer relief.

• SPY: $737.71 (-0.06%)
• QQQ: $708.88 (+0.23%)
• DIA: $496.14 (-0.35%)
• IWM: $281.63 (-0.33%)

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🔥 KEY THEMES

• PPI Event Risk — April producer inflation print (consensus +0.5%) arrives at 8:30 AM ET. A hot reading compounds yesterday's CPI shock and risks "higher for longer" repricing across rate-sensitive sectors.

• Trump-Xi Summit Catalyst — Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's last-minute addition to the Beijing delegation reignited AI trade enthusiasm. Markets pricing potential H200 export breakthrough signal; SMH +2% premarket.

• Iran Ceasefire Friction — Trump rejected Tehran's counterproposal as "totally unacceptable." Israel pushing for Special Forces operation to secure uranium stockpile. Brent holding $108/barrel war premium.

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📈 MOMENTUM WATCHLIST

Bullish Watch:
• NVDA — Summit-driven momentum; Huang's presence in Beijing fuels export restriction relief narrative; +2% premarket follow-through from Monday's strength.

• WELL — Senior housing REIT with persistent institutional accumulation; Q1 beat + raised guidance intact; defensive growth hybrid working in mixed tape.

Potential Breakouts:
• AVB — Apartment REIT testing breakout post-Q1; 63% EPS growth, 1.8x volume expansion; residential real estate showing relative strength.

• MU — Memory/AI infrastructure play with historic +28% week; HBM demand tailwinds intact though +56% monthly move warrants selective entry.

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🎯 MARKET PULSE

Trend: Mixed / Tech-Leadership Divergence
Momentum: Positive in semis, flat-to-negative elsewhere
Volatility: Elevated — macro event risk concentration (PPI + summit)
Overall bias: Neutral until PPI clears; selective risk-on in AI infrastructure

Key Levels:
• SPY: Support $732-735 | Resistance $745-750
• QQQ: Support $700-705 | Resistance $715-720

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🤖 HART QUANT SIGNAL

Quant Read: Growth/Defensive Divergence Index

The QQQ/DIA spread is flashing a familiar signal—tech leadership with blue-chip weakness typically precedes either (1) a broad risk-on catch-up or (2) defensive rotation. Current spread (+0.58%) sits in the 75th percentile of 90-day readings. Historically, extreme divergences resolve within 5 sessions. The direction depends on today's PPI print: hot = mean reversion lower; benign = tech extends. We're watching volume confirmation above $745 SPY for bullish continuation.

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💡 QUANT INSIGHT

When inflation prints hot and the market doesn't break, it reveals underlying demand structure. Yesterday's CPI surprise (+3.8% YoY) saw SPY recover intraday losses and close near flat—a resilient tape despite rates repricing. This suggests institutional money is treating inflation as a known risk rather than a shock. The question today: does PPI confirm input cost persistence? If producer prices cool, it validates the "lagged effects" thesis and supports the case for selective equity exposure. If hot, the market's resilience faces its first real test since early April.

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COMING NEXT

Today: April PPI (8:30 AM ET) — the confirmation print that either validates or refutes yesterday's inflation signal.

This Week: Thursday brings Retail Sales and Jobless Claims; Friday closes with Industrial Production and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Ongoing: Trump-Xi summit continues through tomorrow; Iran war trajectory remains the wild card for energy and risk assets.

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Hart Quantitative Research
Visit: https://hartquantitativeresearch.com

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.