Hart Market Intelligence - Monday, July 13

Date: Monday, July 13, 2026

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MARKET OVERVIEW

Markets open with a split tape and mixed signals. Large-cap tech closed Friday on a positive note while small-caps lagged, and premarket futures are sending conflicting signals ahead of a packed macro week. Geopolitical tension in the Middle East is keeping oil elevated, while investors brace for Tuesday's CPI print and the kickoff of bank earnings season.

• SPY: $754.95 (+0.43%)
• QQQ: $725.51 (+0.31%)
• DIA: $525.78 (+0.30%)
• IWM: $295.99 (−0.42%)

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🔥 KEY THEMES

• Iran/Hormuz Escalation — Iran claims it has "completely closed" the Strait of Hormuz after hitting a Qatar U.S. air base. Oil spiked ~3.7% (Brent near $79). VIX near 15 may be underpricing this risk.

• CPI Tuesday — The macro event of the week. Consensus core CPI +0.20-0.23% MoM. A print above +0.3% could spike July hike pricing and rattle equities.

• Bank Earnings Kickoff — JPM, C, WFC, GS, and BAC report Tuesday pre-market. Guidance tone will matter more than the numbers — a real-time read on the economy.

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🧮 QUANT HIGH-CONFIDENCE PICK

No quant pick today.

Reason: No high-confidence quant setup cleared the score threshold (0.835 vs required 1.000). Both quant and AI models are sidelined — a signal in itself. When models agree on low conviction, respect the uncertainty.

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📈 MOMENTUM WATCHLIST

Bullish Watch:
• CROX — Testing a 20-day breakout with +5.6% weekly momentum and 1.32x relative volume. Setup quality B. Entry ~$133.76, target ~$151.54, stop ~$124.88.
• CSCO — Zacks Bull of the Day mention plus clean 20-day breakout retest. Low extension (2.86% vs SMA20) offers better risk/reward than parabolic names. Entry ~$121.73, target ~$134.12, stop ~$115.53.

Potential Breakouts:
• SOFI — 20-day breakout test with strong month momentum (+18.3%) and manageable 5.93% extension. Volume is marginal at 1.08x — needs confirmation. Entry ~$19.76, target ~$24.54, stop ~$17.37.

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🎯 MARKET PULSE

Trend: Mixed — large-cap tech resilient, small-caps weak
Momentum: Narrow — leadership concentrated in mega-caps
Volatility: Compressed — VIX ~15 with elevated event risk
Overall bias: Cautious / Neutral

Key Levels:
• SPY support: $748 (Friday low) / $745 — resistance: $756 / $760
• QQQ support: $717 (Friday low) / $720 — resistance: $726 / $730

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🤖 HART QUANT SIGNAL

Breadth Divergence Alert: Friday's session saw 9 of 11 S&P sectors close negative despite SPY finishing +0.43%. The rally is being carried by a shrinking number of names. When breadth diverges this sharply from price, the probability of a near-term pullback or rotation rises. Watch IWM — if small-caps can't hold $293, the divergence widens.

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💡 QUANT INSIGHT

Our deterministic quant model is sidelined today but our AI model produced signal. Valid 1-2 day setups exist (CROX, CSCO, SOFI), but sizing should reflect the headline risk. Tuesday's CPI is the make-or-break catalyst for the week.

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COMING NEXT

• Tuesday 8:30 AM ET — June CPI (core consensus +0.20-0.23% MoM)
• Tuesday Pre-Market — JPM, C, WFC, GS, BAC earnings
• Tuesday-Wednesday 10:00 AM ET — Fed Chair Warsh testimony
• Wednesday — BAC, MS earnings
• Thursday — Jobless claims, retail sales, industrial production

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Hart Quantitative Research
Visit: https://hartquantitativeresearch.com

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Disclaimer: This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.